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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
12.00%
09 PMTue 1503 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMWed 1603 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM1012141618202224%12.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$8.1K

Your call

The market says 12.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price12.00%
Spread + depth+2.86 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability14.86%
6730
Shares
$5,730
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (16.7%)
Mid Price
12.0¢
Total Depth
$10,898
Bid/Ask Imbalance
12% bid
Bids (Buy)
11.0¢711
10.0¢230
9.0¢916
8.0¢3,728
7.0¢1,869
6.0¢1,821
5.0¢7,200
4.0¢1,400
Asks (Sell)
13.0¢1,035
14.0¢927
15.0¢2,723
16.0¢3,737
17.0¢788
18.0¢224
19.0¢441
20.0¢573
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
13.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
14.86¢+14.30%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
34.37¢+164.38%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.00%, based on $8.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 19, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.