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Culture · Polymarket

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
7.00%
07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMTue 2201 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM05 AM06 AM07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM03 PM04 PM05 PM06 PM07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMWed 2301 AM246810121416%7.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$5.6K

Your call

The market says 7.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price7.00%
Spread + depth+5.35 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability12.35%
8097
Shares
$7,097
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (28.6%)
Mid Price
7.0¢
Total Depth
$8,196
Bid/Ask Imbalance
5% bid
Bids (Buy)
6.0¢426
5.0¢1,920
4.0¢4,657
3.0¢3,542
2.0¢450
1.0¢1,472
Asks (Sell)
8.0¢188
9.0¢1,734
10.0¢487
11.0¢641
12.0¢1,034
13.0¢1,126
14.0¢341
15.0¢1,596
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
8.83¢+10.43%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
12.35¢+54.38%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
34.18¢+327.31%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 7.00%, based on $5.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 26, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.