12.50%
Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 87.5% on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?", backed by $3.8K in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $3.8K
- Momentum
- -0.00pt/day
Live Order Book Depth
Spread
1.0¢ (8.0%)
Mid Price
12.5¢
Total Depth (shown levels)
$41,439
Bid/Ask Imbalance
10% bid
Bids (Buy)
12.0¢14,179
11.0¢5,936
10.0¢12,024
9.0¢1,303
8.0¢44
7.0¢13
6.0¢208
5.0¢200
Asks (Sell)
13.0¢10,530
14.0¢23,460
15.0¢8,820
16.0¢2,455
17.0¢1,581
18.0¢1,020
19.0¢1,469
20.0¢1,440
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
13.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
13.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
16.46¢+26.59%
avg fill · slippage
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
Polymarket15.50%+545
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15.50%Live price only —
no history published
no history published
VOL $274.5K
Manifold64.99%-186
Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?
64.99%Live price only —
no history published
no history published
VOL 2.1K Mana
Manifold36.40%+175
Pangram say average feed <50% human by 1 March 2027?
36.40%Live price only —
no history published
no history published
VOL 1.5K Mana
Manifold18.00%+456
Will nadya271 reach Codeforces International Master in or before 2027?
18.00%Live price only —
no history published
no history published
VOL 451 Mana
Manifold60.66%-154
Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)?
60.66%Live price only —
no history published
no history published
VOL 136 Mana
Manifold46.34%+116
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
46.34%Live price only —
no history published
no history published
VOL 76 Mana
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.50%, based on $3.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.