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Culture · Polymarket

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 24?

Trade on Polymarket →
40.50%
07 AM08 AM09 AM10 AM11 AM12 PM01 PM02 PM03 PM04 PM05 PM06 PM07 PM08 PM09 PM10 PM11 PMWed 2301 AM02 AM03 AM04 AM20222426283032343638404244%40.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$1.3K

Your call

The market says 40.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price40.50%
Spread + depth+3.27 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability43.77%
2285
Shares
$1,285
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.5%)
Mid Price
40.5¢
Total Depth
$25,098
Bid/Ask Imbalance
12% bid
Bids (Buy)
40.0¢495
39.0¢5,602
38.0¢191
37.0¢62
30.0¢7
29.0¢50
27.0¢30
25.0¢1,015
Asks (Sell)
41.0¢17
42.0¢138
43.0¢201
44.0¢15,433
45.0¢222
46.0¢237
47.0¢106
48.0¢37
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
42.27¢+3.10%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
43.77¢+6.75%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
49.12¢+19.81%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 24?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 40.50%, based on $1.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 24, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.