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Politics · Kalshi

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?

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11.50%
5.30% fee-adjusted
Wed 29Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 150102030405060%15.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 12.4% in 14d (6.7–21.9%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$0
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 11.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price11.50%
Spread + depth+3.50 pts
Fee5.95% of stake
Break-even probability15.89%
6667
Shares
$5,607
Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItWhich party will win the 2028 US presidential election?: Democratic
57.00%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that South Carolina holds the earliest 2028 Democratic presidential contest administered by its election officials or the Democratic Party among the 50 states before Apr 1, 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 11.50%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around April 1, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.