Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance — Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?
Trade on Kalshi →Executive Briefing
Live Kalshi consensus prices "No" at 87% on "Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance — Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?", backed by $171 in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $171
- Momentum
- +0.00pt/day
Your call
The market says 13.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
Compare Across Platforms
| Platform | Question | Live Price | Real Bid / Ask | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi Furthest from consensus | Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance — Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? | 13.0% | 12¢ / 14¢ | 50% |
| PredictIt | Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Vance | 46.00% | 45¢ / 47¢ | 50% |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance — Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?"?
As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 13.00%, based on $171 in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (46.00%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 29.50%. See the full comparison table below.