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Politics · Kalshi

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
17.50%
11.73% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06810121416182022%16.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 17.1% in 14d (15.5–18.8%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$52.3K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 36 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezViewing
17.50%
Jon Ossoff
16.50%
Gavin Newsom
13.50%
Kamala Harris
8.35%
Pete Buttigieg
5.45%
Mark Kelly
5.00%
Josh Shapiro
4.90%
Rahm Emanuel
3.85%
Andy Beshear
3.55%
Wes Moore
2.45%
Ro Khanna
1.85%
J.B. Pritzker
1.65%
Michelle Obama
1.65%
James Talarico
1.55%
Gretchen Whitmer
0.85%
Raphael Warnock
0.75%
Chris Murphy
0.65%
Mark Cuban
0.65%
Jon Stewart
0.55%
Cory Booker
0.55%
Ruben Gallego
0.45%
Elissa Slotkin
0.45%
Stephen A. Smith
0.40%
Bernie Sanders
0.30%
Hunter Biden
0.25%
Roy Cooper
0.25%
Jamie Dimon
0.25%
Tim Walz
0.20%
Zohran Mamdani
0.15%
John Fetterman
0.15%
Barack Obama
0.15%
Jared Polis
0.10%
Liz Cheney
0.10%
Gina Raimondo
0.10%
Phil Murphy
0.10%
Lebron James
0.10%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)18.69%
Platforms agree closely — 1.9pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
KalshiWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?17.5%17¢ / 18¢
37%
PolymarketWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?19.40%19.1¢ / 19.7¢
63%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 17.50%, based on $52.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Polymarket (19.40%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 18.69%. See the full comparison table below.