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Politics · Kalshi

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Trade on Kalshi →
18.50%
12.79% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06121416182022242628303234%18.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 16.1% in 14d (14.8–17.6%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$9.7K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 38 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. Vance
43.50%
Marco RubioViewing
18.50%
Ron DeSantis
4.75%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
3.55%
Tucker Carlson
3.35%
Donald J. Trump
2.00%
Ted Cruz
1.45%
Ivanka Trump
1.10%
Thomas Massie
1.00%
Glenn Youngkin
1.00%
Lara Trump
1.00%
Spencer Pratt
1.00%
Jeff Bezos
1.00%
Candace Owens
1.00%
Josh Hawley
0.75%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
0.75%
Pete Hegseth
0.75%
Greg Abbott
0.65%
Brian Kemp
0.65%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
0.60%
Mike Pence
0.60%
Rand Paul
0.50%
Nikki Haley
0.45%
Byron Donalds
0.45%
Eric Trump
0.45%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.35%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.35%
Katie Britt
0.30%
Tulsi Gabbard
0.30%
Steve Bannon
0.30%
Elon Musk
0.25%
Elise Stefanik
0.25%
Tom Cotton
0.25%
Matt Gaetz
0.15%
John Thune
0.15%
Erika Kirk
0.15%
Nicki Minaj
0.15%
Kristi Noem
0.10%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (3 platforms, liquidity-weighted)High-Confidence18.52%
Platforms agree closely — 2.95pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
KalshiWill Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?18.5%18¢ / 19¢
25%
PolymarketWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?17.55%17.5¢ / 17.6¢
50%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Rubio20.50%20¢ / 21¢
25%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 18.50%, based on $9.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Polymarket (17.55%), PredictIt (20.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 3 platforms is 18.52%. See the full comparison table below.