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Politics · Kalshi

Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Trade on Kalshi →
1.45%
0.00% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 0600.511.522.533.544.55%1.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 1.6% in 14d (1.4–1.8%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$935
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 38 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. Vance
43.50%
Marco Rubio
18.50%
Ron DeSantis
4.70%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
3.55%
Tucker Carlson
3.30%
Donald J. Trump
2.00%
Ted CruzViewing
1.45%
Ivanka Trump
1.05%
Thomas Massie
1.00%
Glenn Youngkin
1.00%
Pete Hegseth
1.00%
Lara Trump
1.00%
Spencer Pratt
1.00%
Jeff Bezos
1.00%
Candace Owens
1.00%
Josh Hawley
0.75%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
0.75%
Greg Abbott
0.65%
Brian Kemp
0.65%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
0.60%
Mike Pence
0.60%
Rand Paul
0.50%
Nikki Haley
0.45%
Byron Donalds
0.45%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0.35%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.35%
Eric Trump
0.35%
Katie Britt
0.30%
Tulsi Gabbard
0.30%
Steve Bannon
0.30%
Elon Musk
0.25%
Elise Stefanik
0.25%
Tom Cotton
0.25%
Matt Gaetz
0.15%
John Thune
0.15%
Erika Kirk
0.15%
Nicki Minaj
0.15%
Kristi Noem
0.10%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)1.20%
Platforms agree closely — 0.5pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
KalshiWill Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?1.4%1.4¢ / 1.5¢
50%
PolymarketWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.95%0.9¢ / 1¢
50%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 1.45%, based on $935 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Polymarket (0.95%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 1.20%. See the full comparison table below.