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Politics · Polymarket

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Trade on Polymarket →
52.60%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 1540424446485052545658%52.60%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 54.1% in 14d (52.5–55.6%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$41.8K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.2¢ (0.4%)
Mid Price
52.6¢
Total Depth
$19,440,829
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
52.5¢16
52.2¢150
52.1¢12,678
52.0¢156
51.9¢379
51.8¢600
51.7¢100
51.5¢194
Asks (Sell)
52.7¢134
52.8¢25
52.9¢903
53.0¢6,336
53.1¢4,900
53.4¢100
53.8¢202
53.9¢4,000
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
52.75¢+0.09%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
52.93¢+0.43%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
53.36¢+1.25%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 4 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. VanceViewing
52.60%
Pete Hegseth
0.40%
Kristi Noem
0.15%
Mike Pence
0.15%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)51.28%
Platforms differ by 6.6pts — a normal range.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
PolymarketWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?52.60%52.5¢ / 52.7¢
80%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Vance46.00%45¢ / 47¢
20%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 52.60%, based on $41.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (46.00%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 51.28%. See the full comparison table below.