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Politics · Polymarket

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Trade on Polymarket →
0.95%
Fri 31AugustMon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 1100.511.522.533.54%0.95%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 0.9% in 14d (0.9–1.0%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$257.5K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (10.5%)
Mid Price
0.9¢
Total Depth
$14,853,440
Bid/Ask Imbalance
0% bid
Bids (Buy)
0.9¢598,472
0.8¢144,969
0.7¢12,000
0.6¢42,667
0.5¢104,000
0.4¢122,500
0.3¢23,382
0.2¢272,085
Asks (Sell)
1.0¢128,450
1.1¢1,173
1.2¢414
1.3¢1,100
1.4¢5,055
1.5¢839
1.6¢411
1.7¢2,411
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
1.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
1.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
2.61¢+161.08%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 5 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. Vance
49.15%
Marco Rubio
17.35%
Ted CruzViewing
0.95%
Pete Hegseth
0.25%
Rand Paul
0.25%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)1.13%
Platforms agree closely — 0.55pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
PolymarketWill Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.95%0.9¢ / 1¢
67%
PredictItWho will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?: Cruz1.50%1¢ / 2¢
33%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 0.95%, based on $257.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (1.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 1.13%. See the full comparison table below.