Politics · Kalshi

Reform party — Will Reform win the next U.K. election?

32.50%

27.77% fee-adjusted

Model projection: 31.1% in 14d (28.6–33.7%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Kalshi consensus prices "No" at 67.5% on "Reform party — Will Reform win the next U.K. election?", backed by $93 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $93
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 32.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

KalshiLive best ask

Quoted price32.50%

Spread + depth+2.50 pts

Fee4.55% of stake

Break-even probability36.59%

2857

$1,812

Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Reform party — Will Reform win the next U.K. election?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 32.50%, based on $93 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around August 31, 2029, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.