Politics · Kalshi

Republican Governor, Democratic Senator — Will Michigan Governor winner be Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic party?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will Michigan Governor winner be Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic party?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 3%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Kalshi →

2.50%

0.00% fee-adjusted

Model projection: 37.1% in 14d (8.0–80.1%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Kalshi consensus prices "No" at 97.5% on "Republican Governor, Democratic Senator — Will Michigan Governor winner be Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic party?", backed by $0 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $0
Momentum: +0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 2.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

KalshiLive best ask

Quoted price2.50%

Spread + depth+1.50 pts

Fee6.72% of stake

Break-even probability4.27%

25000

$23,933

Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (3 platforms, liquidity-weighted)High-Confidence68.90%

Platforms disagree by 86pts — wider than usual, worth checking each quote below before trusting the average.

Platform	Question	Live Price	Real Bid / Ask	Weight
Kalshi Furthest from consensus	Republican Governor, Democratic Senator — Will Michigan Governor winner be Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic party?	2.5%	1¢ / 4¢	20%
Kalshi	Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan	88.5%	—	20%
PredictIt	Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Michigan?: Democratic	84.50%	84¢ / 85¢	60%

Similar Politics Markets

PredictIt

▼ 1.524H

84.50%-545

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in Michigan's 7th District?: Democratic

56.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL —

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Republican Governor, Democratic Senator — Will Michigan Governor winner be Republican party and Michigan Senate winner be Democratic party?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 2.50%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 3, 2027, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Kalshi (88.50%), PredictIt (84.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 3 platforms is 68.90%. See the full comparison table below.