What is the current probability for "Will the Supreme Court overturn marriage equality?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 8%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Politics · Kalshi

Before 2029 — Will the Supreme Court overturn marriage equality?

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Kalshi →

7.85%

1.40% fee-adjusted

Model projection: 6.9% in 14d (6.1–7.7%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Kalshi consensus prices "No" at 92.15% on "Before 2029 — Will the Supreme Court overturn marriage equality?", backed by $0 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $0
Momentum: -0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 7.8%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

KalshiLive best ask

Quoted price7.85%

Spread + depth+0.85 pts

Fee6.39% of stake

Break-even probability9.26%

11494

$10,430

Net if it wins

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Before 2029 — Will the Supreme Court overturn marriage equality?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 7.85%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2029, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.