Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 50.5% on "Will this market close below 50%?", backed by 107 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 107 Mana
Your call
The market says 49.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will this market close below 50%?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 49.50%, based on 107 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 5, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.