Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "Yes" at 59.94% on "Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?", backed by 97.3K Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 97.3K Mana
Your call
The market says 59.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
ManifoldAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
no history published
ManifoldWill all Millennium Prize Problems be solved before the Collatz Conjecture
no history published
ManifoldAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
no history published
ManifoldAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
no history published
ManifoldWill another spacecraft successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
no history published
ManifoldWill trump make another absurd promise?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 59.94%, based on 97.3K Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.