Will OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?
Trade on Manifold →Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 92.33% on "Will OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?", backed by 280 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 280 Mana
Your call
The market says 7.7%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar AI Markets
ManifoldWill OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware
no history published
ManifoldWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
no history published
PolymarketWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
no history published
Manifold[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 7.67%, based on 280 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.



