Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "Yes" at 85.92% on "Caroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?", backed by 100 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 100 Mana
Your call
The market says 85.9%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
ManifoldWill Austin Chen publicly regret hiring Caroline Ellison before 2028?
no history published
ManifoldNew tweet from @carolinecapital by EOY?
no history published
ManifoldAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
no history published
Manifold
Will the SS United States be sunk by EOY 2027?
no history published
ManifoldIf the world population is believed to have dropped below 1 billion, will manifold still be accessible?
no history published
ManifoldNew most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Caroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 85.92%, based on 100 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.