Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 94.7% on "Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?", backed by 183 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 183 Mana
Your call
The market says 5.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
ManifoldWill any UK nation require a register or mandatory disclosure of trans status by EOY 2035?
no history published
Manifold
Willl New Mexico be renamed to New America by EOY?
no history published
ManifoldNew most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027
no history published
ManifoldWill the 2028 Democratic Nominee win any state by 10.000% or more, that was won by trump in 2024?
no history published
Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
no history published
PolymarketMap Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 5.30%, based on 183 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2035, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.