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Culture · Manifold

Blue Wave in 2026?

Trade on Manifold →
83.53%

Stats

24h Volume
88 Mana

Your call

The market says 83.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
ManifoldQuoted price only
Quoted price83.53%
Spread + depth0.00 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability83.53%
1197
Shares
$197
Net if it wins

AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Blue Wave in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 83.53%, based on 88 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 5, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.