Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "Yes" at 96.98% on "US Average Gas Price Is $4.3000 or more on October 5 2026?", backed by 2.5K Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 2.5K Mana
Your call
The market says 97.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar Culture Markets
ManifoldUS Average DIESEL Price Is $6.3000 or more on October 5 2026?
no history published
ManifoldUS Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?
no history published
ManifoldUS Average Gas Price Is $4.4200 or more on October 5 2026?
no history published
ManifoldWill Daniel Lord livestream between September 28 and October 9 of 2026?
no history published
ManifoldWill my net worth on Manifold Markets reach 18,000 by October 18, 2026? (10/18/26)
no history published
Manifold
Will China's suspension of its October 2025 export controls still be in effect on December 31, 2026?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "US Average Gas Price Is $4.3000 or more on October 5 2026?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 96.98%, based on 2.5K Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 5, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.