Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 96.31% on "Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?", backed by 53 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 53 Mana
Your call
The market says 3.7%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 3.69%, based on 53 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 3, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.