Executive Briefing
Live Manifold consensus prices "No" at 70.43% on "Will I purchase an ChatGPT/Astra subscription in the next month?", backed by 66 Mana in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- 66 Mana
Your call
The market says 29.6%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.
True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
AMM — no order book or best ask published, so the real spread and depth cost are unknown.
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
Similar AI Markets
ManifoldWill the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
no history published
ManifoldWill Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model
no history published
ManifoldOpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?
no history published
PolymarketWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?
no history published
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will I purchase an ChatGPT/Astra subscription in the next month?"?
As of the latest update, Manifold prices this at 29.57%, based on 66 Mana in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 3, 2026, per Manifold's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Manifold. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.