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Culture · Polymarket

Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
64.50%
Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28Tue 2955606570758085%64.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 74.9% in 14d (68.4–80.4%)+0.02pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$6.7K
Momentum
+0.02pt/day

Your call

The market says 64.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price64.50%
Spread + depth+1.00 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability65.50%
1527
Shares
$527
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.6%)
Mid Price
64.5¢
Total Depth
$6,974
Bid/Ask Imbalance
28% bid
Bids (Buy)
64.0¢368
63.0¢191
62.0¢200
59.0¢66
56.0¢58
55.0¢258
33.0¢149
32.0¢222
Asks (Sell)
65.0¢777
66.0¢734
67.0¢60
68.0¢200
70.0¢100
71.0¢142
72.0¢909
76.0¢571
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
65.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
65.50¢+0.77%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
76.35¢+17.46%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 64.50%, based on $6.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.