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Culture · Polymarket

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
43.50%
Thu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 07Fri 0920304050607080%43.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 43.2% in 14d (35.6–51.1%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$12.9K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 43.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price43.50%
Spread + depth+2.92 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability46.42%
2154
Shares
$1,154
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.3%)
Mid Price
43.5¢
Total Depth
$22,272
Bid/Ask Imbalance
30% bid
Bids (Buy)
43.0¢279
42.0¢2,329
41.0¢1,727
40.0¢114
39.0¢273
38.0¢90
37.0¢100
35.0¢25
Asks (Sell)
44.0¢36
45.0¢848
46.0¢176
47.0¢361
48.0¢953
49.0¢398
50.0¢1,500
59.0¢600
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
44.84¢+1.91%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
46.42¢+5.50%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
67.25¢+52.83%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in November 2026?
21.71%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 43.50%, based on $12.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.