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Culture · Polymarket

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
13.50%
Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 210510152025303540%13.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 14.6% in 14d (9.2–22.4%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$10.8K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 13.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price13.50%
Spread + depth+4.09 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability17.59%
5686
Shares
$4,686
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (7.4%)
Mid Price
13.5¢
Total Depth
$105,814
Bid/Ask Imbalance
2% bid
Bids (Buy)
13.0¢50
12.0¢1,927
11.0¢2,130
10.0¢2,523
9.0¢50
8.0¢329
7.0¢1,429
6.0¢3,167
Asks (Sell)
14.0¢476
15.0¢404
16.0¢282
17.0¢1,275
18.0¢635
19.0¢2,630
20.0¢100
21.0¢50
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
14.32¢+2.27%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
17.59¢+25.63%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
33.04¢+135.99%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Russia and Ukraine hold direct peace talks before November 1, 2026?
25.21%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 13.50%, based on $10.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.