Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Culture · Polymarket

Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Trade on Polymarket →
60.50%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 153035404550556065707580%60.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 65.8% in 14d (59.3–71.7%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$20.9K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 60.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price60.50%
Spread + depth+1.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability62.00%
1613
Shares
$613
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (5.0%)
Mid Price
60.5¢
Total Depth
$107,656
Bid/Ask Imbalance
23% bid
Bids (Buy)
59.0¢68
58.0¢2,676
57.0¢781
56.0¢777
55.0¢24,996
54.0¢50
53.0¢3,694
52.0¢17
Asks (Sell)
62.0¢3,643
63.0¢2,020
64.0¢5,825
65.0¢4,000
66.0¢5
68.0¢3,000
74.0¢27
75.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
62.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
62.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
63.71¢+2.76%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Similar Culture Markets

Manifold logoManifold
16.88%+492

Will my this market post cross 100k Mana mark? (THIS ONE)

16.88%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 163 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
77.51%-345

Will human genetic enhancement of embryos be legally permitted in at least one country by EOY 2040?

77.51%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 6 Mana
Manifold logoManifold
56.96%-132

Will the ExoMars rover launch within its current 2028 baseline window?

56.96%Live price only —
no history published
VOL 0 Mana
Polymarket logoPolymarket
15.50%+545

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

15.50%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $679.7K
Polymarket logoPolymarket
▼ 3.624H
0.25%

Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?

0.25%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $263.9K
Limitless logoLimitless
100.00%

Will Ødegaard join Man United by Sep 2, 2026?

100.00%Live price only —
no history published
VOL $197.8K

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 60.50%, based on $20.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.