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Politics · Polymarket

Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
74.00%
Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05304050607080%74.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$16.4K

Your call

The market says 74.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price74.00%
Spread + depth+1.88 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability75.88%
1318
Shares
$318
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.3%)
Mid Price
74.5¢
Total Depth
$185,783
Bid/Ask Imbalance
23% bid
Bids (Buy)
74.0¢413
73.0¢4,713
72.0¢8,900
71.0¢4,508
70.0¢3,674
69.0¢5,111
67.0¢200
65.0¢22
Asks (Sell)
75.0¢152
76.0¢2,097
77.0¢5,879
78.0¢9,439
79.0¢2,607
80.0¢5,155
81.0¢2,657
82.0¢2,557
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
75.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
75.88¢+1.18%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
77.19¢+2.92%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 74.00%, based on $16.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 6, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.