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Politics · Polymarket

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
93.50%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 1580828486889092949698%93.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 94.6% in 14d (93.1–95.7%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$11.6K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 93.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price93.50%
Spread + depth+1.21 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability94.71%
1056
Shares
$56
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.1%)
Mid Price
93.5¢
Total Depth
$87,169
Bid/Ask Imbalance
69% bid
Bids (Buy)
93.0¢65
92.0¢1,168
91.0¢6,305
90.0¢6,730
89.0¢5,758
88.0¢10,257
85.0¢46
84.0¢1,006
Asks (Sell)
94.0¢302
95.0¢1,127
96.0¢7,266
97.0¢3,646
98.0¢7,959
99.0¢7,688
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
94.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
94.71¢+0.76%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
96.00¢+2.13%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

PredictItHow many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election?: 192 or fewer
21.50%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 93.50%, based on $11.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 20, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.