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AI · Polymarket

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
15.50%
16.4% calibrated
Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 285101520253035%15.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 20.0% in 14d (15.3–25.5%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$3.8K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 15.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price15.50%
Spread + depth+1.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability17.00%
5882
Shares
$4,882
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (6.5%)
Mid Price
15.5¢
Total Depth
$7,428
Bid/Ask Imbalance
29% bid
Bids (Buy)
15.0¢600
14.0¢5,956
13.0¢3,740
12.0¢2,003
11.0¢2,679
10.0¢421
8.0¢7
7.0¢349
Asks (Sell)
16.0¢1,353
17.0¢3,169
18.0¢1,931
19.0¢2,448
20.0¢2,054
28.0¢11
31.0¢55
44.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
16.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
17.00¢+6.26%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
32.98¢+106.13%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 15.50%, based on $3.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.