AI · Polymarket

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

12.50%

Model projection: 13.0% in 14d (12.1–14.0%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 87.5% on "Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?", backed by $0 in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $15.5K
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.0¢ (24.0%)

Mid Price

12.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$610

Bid/Ask Imbalance

9% bid

Bids (Buy)

11.0¢18

10.0¢187

9.0¢110

8.0¢5

7.0¢143

4.0¢175

3.0¢158

2.0¢100

Asks (Sell)

14.0¢25

15.0¢30

16.0¢144

17.0¢557

18.0¢45

19.0¢84

20.0¢10

21.0¢9

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

16.54¢+18.13%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

30.37¢+116.93%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

$10,000 order

30.37¢+116.93%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.50%, based on $15.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.