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Culture · Polymarket

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?

Trade on Polymarket →
60.50%
Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 210102030405060708090100%60.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 12.1% in 14d (4.0–31.1%)-0.08pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$8.9K
Momentum
-0.08pt/day

Your call

The market says 60.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price60.50%
Spread + depth+0.85 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability61.35%
1630
Shares
$630
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.7%)
Mid Price
60.5¢
Total Depth
$8,872
Bid/Ask Imbalance
18% bid
Bids (Buy)
60.0¢16
59.0¢284
58.0¢299
57.0¢10
56.0¢66
55.0¢217
54.0¢297
50.0¢141
Asks (Sell)
61.0¢1,060
62.0¢1,438
63.0¢553
66.0¢312
67.0¢412
68.0¢493
69.0¢1,746
70.0¢150
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
61.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
61.35¢+0.57%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
74.66¢+22.39%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 60.50%, based on $8.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 30, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.