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AI · Polymarket

Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Trade on Polymarket →
36.50%
39.7% calibrated
Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 28102030405060708090%36.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 66.2% in 14d (59.2–72.5%)+0.04pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$1.3K
Momentum
+0.04pt/day

Your call

The market says 36.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price36.50%
Spread + depth+2.67 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability39.17%
2553
Shares
$1,553
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.7%)
Mid Price
36.5¢
Total Depth
$5,565
Bid/Ask Imbalance
32% bid
Bids (Buy)
36.0¢1,283
35.0¢392
34.0¢292
33.0¢257
32.0¢205
29.0¢372
28.0¢29
27.0¢324
Asks (Sell)
37.0¢1,238
38.0¢364
39.0¢237
43.0¢302
44.0¢1,027
45.0¢73
46.0¢277
47.0¢5
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
37.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
39.17¢+5.86%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
59.13¢+59.80%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
55.10%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 36.50%, based on $1.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.