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Finance · Polymarket

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

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11.50%
Live Bitcoin Price$81,550▲ 5.40% 24h· via CoinGecko
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 1705101520253035404550%11.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 8.0% in 14d (5.7–11.1%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$108.4K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 11.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price11.50%
Spread + depth+3.17 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability14.67%
6818
Shares
$5,818
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (8.7%)
Mid Price
11.5¢
Total Depth
$248,946
Bid/Ask Imbalance
17% bid
Bids (Buy)
11.0¢9,557
10.0¢30,410
9.0¢232
8.0¢980
7.0¢1,229
6.0¢617
5.0¢4,622
4.0¢633,000
Asks (Sell)
12.0¢81
13.0¢502
14.0¢1,030
15.0¢39,619
16.0¢34,021
17.0¢26
18.0¢868
19.0¢26
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
13.13¢+9.41%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
14.67¢+22.22%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
15.33¢+27.77%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 11.50%, based on $108.4K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.