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Finance · Polymarket

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?

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73.50%
Live Bitcoin Price$80,129▲ 0.28% 24h· via CoinGecko
Wed 26Thu 27Fri 28Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 2150556065707580859095%73.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 67.7% in 14d (58.4–75.9%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$38.5K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 73.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price73.50%
Spread + depth+2.48 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability75.98%
1316
Shares
$316
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (4.1%)
Mid Price
73.5¢
Total Depth
$80,283
Bid/Ask Imbalance
41% bid
Bids (Buy)
72.0¢8,000
71.0¢100
70.0¢2,100
69.0¢3,025
68.0¢3,000
60.0¢200
59.0¢5,500
57.0¢30
Asks (Sell)
75.0¢29
76.0¢3,207
77.0¢6,100
78.0¢4,100
79.0¢3,000
81.0¢37
85.0¢20
88.0¢3,800
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
75.78¢+1.04%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
75.98¢+1.30%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
77.03¢+2.71%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 73.50%, based on $38.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.