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Finance · Polymarket

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?

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59.00%
Live Bitcoin Price$76,033▼ 3.04% 24h· via CoinGecko
Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 290102030405060708090100%58.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 61.6% in 14d (45.4–75.5%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$110.5K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 59.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price59.00%
Spread + depth+3.28 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability62.28%
1606
Shares
$606
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.7%)
Mid Price
58.5¢
Total Depth
$296,957
Bid/Ask Imbalance
13% bid
Bids (Buy)
58.0¢101
57.0¢143
56.0¢9,003
55.0¢115
54.0¢20
53.0¢200
51.0¢30
50.0¢140
Asks (Sell)
59.0¢100
60.0¢133
61.0¢113
62.0¢123
63.0¢3,000
64.0¢105
65.0¢93
69.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
59.41¢+0.69%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
62.28¢+5.57%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
68.56¢+16.20%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Bitcoin be higher than $66,666 at the end of 2026?
73.37%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 59.00%, based on $110.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.