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Politics · Polymarket

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Trade on Polymarket →
38.50%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 1710152025303540455055%38.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 39.9% in 14d (32.8–47.4%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$2.0K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 38.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price38.50%
Spread + depth+2.42 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability40.92%
2444
Shares
$1,444
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.6%)
Mid Price
38.5¢
Total Depth
$555,652
Bid/Ask Imbalance
4% bid
Bids (Buy)
38.0¢6
37.0¢45
36.0¢24
34.0¢45
33.0¢1,219
31.0¢95
30.0¢180
29.0¢355
Asks (Sell)
39.0¢422
40.0¢720
41.0¢66
42.0¢1,109
43.0¢1,344
44.0¢644
45.0¢1,182
47.0¢2,247
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
39.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
40.92¢+4.92%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
52.47¢+34.53%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 38.50%, based on $2.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 20, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.