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Culture · Polymarket

Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?

Trade on Polymarket →
6.40%
Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 2102468101214%6.35%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 6.0% in 14d (5.2–6.9%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$120
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 6.4%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price6.40%
Spread + depth+15.92 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability22.32%
4480
Shares
$3,480
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (15.6%)
Mid Price
6.4¢
Total Depth
$86,173
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
5.9¢212
5.8¢1,655
5.7¢2,182
5.6¢550
5.5¢1,250
5.0¢10
4.2¢60
2.9¢266
Asks (Sell)
6.9¢15
7.0¢567
7.3¢40
7.4¢269
7.5¢269
7.6¢874
7.9¢212
9.3¢55
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
7.28¢+5.47%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
22.32¢+223.53%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
61.92¢+797.36%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?
88.00%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 6.40%, based on $120 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.