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Culture · Polymarket

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by September 30, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
7.00%
03 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMFri 0403 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM0510152025303540455055%7.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$838

Your call

The market says 7.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price7.00%
Spread + depth+25.63 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability32.63%
3065
Shares
$2,065
Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (28.6%)
Mid Price
7.0¢
Total Depth
$424
Bid/Ask Imbalance
7% bid
Bids (Buy)
6.0¢241
5.0¢138
4.0¢34
3.0¢85
2.0¢255
1.0¢18
Asks (Sell)
8.0¢130
9.0¢256
10.0¢16
15.0¢100
16.0¢20
17.0¢120
18.0¢250
44.0¢20
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
12.69¢+58.58%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
32.63¢+307.86%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
$10,000 order
32.63¢+307.86%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by September 30, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 7.00%, based on $838 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 30, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.