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Culture · Polymarket

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
1.95%
Mon 03Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 150123456%1.95%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 1.8% in 14d (1.7–2.0%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$7.1K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.1¢ (5.1%)
Mid Price
1.9¢
Total Depth
$2,307,571
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
1.9¢910
1.8¢375
1.7¢69
1.6¢406
1.5¢4,454
1.4¢372
1.3¢5,090
1.2¢125
Asks (Sell)
2.0¢5,578
2.1¢13,936
2.2¢1,505
2.3¢2,854
2.4¢3,525
2.5¢604
2.6¢1,300
2.7¢1,000
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
2.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
2.50¢+24.77%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
5.89¢+194.53%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldWill Adam Riess win a second Nobel prize?
15.97%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 1.95%, based on $7.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 10, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.