Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Trade on Polymarket →Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 85.55% on "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?", backed by $47.8K in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $47.8K
- Momentum
- -0.00pt/day
Your call
The market says 14.4%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
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Compare Across Platforms
| Platform | Question | Live Price | Real Bid / Ask | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 14.45% | 14.4¢ / 14.5¢ | 67% |
| PredictIt Confirmed 4d | Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: Newsom | 15.50% | 15¢ / 16¢ | 33% |
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 14.45%, based on $47.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.
When does this market close?
This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 7, 2028, per Polymarket's listed close time.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: PredictIt (15.50%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 14.80%. See the full comparison table below.