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Culture · Polymarket

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
77.95%
Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 297072747678808284868890%77.95%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 79.4% in 14d (72.3–85.0%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$73.5K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 78.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price77.95%
Spread + depth+4.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability82.45%
1213
Shares
$213
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.3¢ (1.7%)
Mid Price
78.0¢
Total Depth
$191,502
Bid/Ask Imbalance
11% bid
Bids (Buy)
77.3¢31
75.5¢32
75.4¢39
75.1¢186
75.0¢20
74.6¢250
74.1¢10
74.0¢135
Asks (Sell)
78.6¢120
78.7¢20
78.8¢89
79.4¢5
79.5¢305
84.4¢8
85.0¢42
85.1¢2,083
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
78.61¢+0.01%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
82.45¢+4.89%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
88.17¢+12.18%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 77.95%, based on $73.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.