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Politics · Polymarket

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Trade on Polymarket →
9.50%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27246810121416%9.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 10.3% in 14d (8.7–12.1%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$29.9K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 9.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price9.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability10.00%
10000
Shares
$9,000
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (10.5%)
Mid Price
9.5¢
Total Depth
$203,708
Bid/Ask Imbalance
3% bid
Bids (Buy)
9.0¢878
8.0¢10,670
7.0¢26,463
6.0¢4,069
5.0¢23,590
4.0¢41,116
3.0¢7,511
2.0¢2,140
Asks (Sell)
10.0¢23,412
11.0¢5,959
12.0¢5,065
13.0¢1,831
14.0¢7,263
15.0¢3,767
16.0¢3,772
17.0¢4,892
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
10.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
10.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
13.94¢+39.36%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)9.14%
Platforms agree closely — 1.45pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
PolymarketWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?9.50%9¢ / 10¢
75%
KalshiNaftali Bennett — Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?8.1%
25%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 9.50%, based on $29.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Kalshi (8.05%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 9.14%. See the full comparison table below.