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AI · Polymarket

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
99.95%
12 PMWed 0212 PMThu 0312 PMFri 0412 PMSat 0512 PMSep 0612 PMMon 0712 PMTue 0812 PMWed 0912 PMThu 1012 PMFri 1112 PM2030405060708090100%99.95%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 100.0% in 7d (100.0–100.0%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$54.5K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 100.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive best ask
Quoted price99.50%
Spread + depth0.00 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability99.50%
1005
Shares
$5
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
—
Mid Price
—
Total Depth
$24,001
Bid/Ask Imbalance
100% bid
Bids (Buy)
99.9¢6,212
98.6¢77
98.5¢100
97.2¢600
97.1¢1,285
95.4¢31
95.3¢331
95.2¢31
Asks (Sell)
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
Insufficient depth
$1,000 order
Insufficient depth
$10,000 order
Insufficient depth

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

ManifoldOpenai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026
98.56%
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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 99.95%, based on $54.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 11, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.