Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
Trade on Polymarket →Executive Briefing
Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on "Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?", backed by $4.1K in 24h trading volume.
Stats
- 24h Volume
- $4.1K
- Momentum
- +0.00pt/day
Your call
The market says 17.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.
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True cost to trade
The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.
The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.
Live Order Book Depth
Compare Across Platforms
Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current probability for "Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?"?
As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 17.50%, based on $4.1K in tracked 24h trading volume.
Where can I trade this market?
This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.
Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?
Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.