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Culture · Polymarket

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
12.50%
Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27Tue 29OctoberSat 03Mon 05Wed 0705101520253035%12.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 10.3% in 14d (7.9–13.3%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$38.6K
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 12.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price12.50%
Spread + depth+5.22 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability17.72%
5645
Shares
$4,645
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (8.0%)
Mid Price
12.5¢
Total Depth
$9,664
Bid/Ask Imbalance
58% bid
Bids (Buy)
12.0¢517
11.0¢60
10.0¢30,366
9.0¢5,185
8.0¢18,285
7.0¢786
6.0¢1,068
5.0¢2,195
Asks (Sell)
13.0¢294
14.0¢226
15.0¢2,447
16.0¢250
17.0¢51
18.0¢300
19.0¢261
20.0¢139
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
13.87¢+6.70%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
17.72¢+36.28%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
34.81¢+167.77%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 12.50%, based on $38.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.