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Culture · Polymarket

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?

Trade on Polymarket →
98.35%
Thu 27Fri 28Sat 29Aug 30Mon 31SeptemberWed 02Thu 03Fri 04Sat 05Sep 06Mon 07Tue 08Wed 09Thu 10Fri 11Sat 12Sep 13Mon 14Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 210102030405060708090100%98.35%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 99.7% in 14d (97.4–100.0%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$99.5K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 98.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price98.35%
Spread + depth+0.35 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability98.70%
1013
Shares
$13
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.7¢ (0.7%)
Mid Price
98.4¢
Total Depth
$49,310
Bid/Ask Imbalance
29% bid
Bids (Buy)
98.0¢590
97.9¢100
97.8¢45
97.7¢50
97.6¢389
97.0¢50
96.1¢200
95.9¢200
Asks (Sell)
98.7¢1,018
98.8¢12,571
98.9¢663
99.0¢3,245
99.2¢2,500
99.3¢2,193
99.4¢2,724
99.5¢1,000
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
98.70¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
98.70¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
98.79¢+0.09%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 98.35%, based on $99.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around November 1, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.