Skip to content
Live odds aggregated fromPolymarket logoPolymarketKalshi logoKalshiManifold logoManifoldPredictIt logoPredictItLimitless logoLimitlessSmarkets logoSmarketsFutuurSee ranked by volume →
Entertainment · Polymarket

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
54.50%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 27203040506070%54.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 58.2% in 14d (49.3–66.5%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$4.0K
Momentum
+0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 54.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price54.50%
Spread + depth+1.03 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability55.53%
1801
Shares
$801
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.8%)
Mid Price
54.5¢
Total Depth
$13,547
Bid/Ask Imbalance
11% bid
Bids (Buy)
54.0¢262
53.0¢650
51.0¢100
48.0¢16
47.0¢102
42.0¢50
41.0¢50
38.0¢14
Asks (Sell)
55.0¢846
56.0¢1,175
57.0¢275
58.0¢150
59.0¢5
61.0¢218
63.0¢5
65.0¢5
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
55.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
55.53¢+0.96%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
85.60¢+55.64%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 54.50%, based on $4.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.