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Finance · Polymarket

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026?

Trade on Polymarket →
82.50%
06 AM12 PM06 PMSep 1306 AM12 PM06 PMMon 1406 AM12 PM06 PMTue 1506 AM12 PM06 PMWed 1606 AM12 PM06 PMThu 1706 AM12 PM06 PMFri 1806 AM12 PM30405060708090100%82.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 93.3% in 3d (89.4–95.9%)+0.07pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$1.9K
Momentum
+0.07pt/day

Your call

The market says 82.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price82.50%
Spread + depth+11.24 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability93.74%
1067
Shares
$67
Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
7.0¢ (8.4%)
Mid Price
83.5¢
Total Depth
$14,578
Bid/Ask Imbalance
98% bid
Bids (Buy)
80.0¢131
79.0¢638
68.0¢6
46.0¢450
31.0¢7,742
22.0¢1,364
21.0¢12,907
14.0¢1,786
Asks (Sell)
87.0¢7
88.0¢100
95.0¢9
96.0¢11
97.0¢66
99.0¢71
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
88.30¢+1.50%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
93.74¢+7.75%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully
$10,000 order
93.74¢+7.75%
avg fill · slippage
Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

LimitlessS&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
9.00%
Same bet?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 14 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 82.50%, based on $1.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 18, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.