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Finance · Polymarket

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?

Trade on Polymarket →
6.30%
Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 19Mon 21Wed 23Fri 25Sep 2702468101214%6.30%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 8.3% in 14d (5.5–12.4%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$4.5K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 6.3%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price6.30%
Spread + depth+15.52 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability21.82%
4583
Shares
$3,583
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
0.2¢ (3.2%)
Mid Price
6.3¢
Total Depth
$30,979
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
6.2¢32
6.0¢84
5.9¢450
5.7¢75
5.6¢71
5.5¢178
5.3¢140
5.2¢409
Asks (Sell)
6.4¢189
6.9¢40
7.0¢100
7.1¢132
7.2¢95
7.3¢58
7.4¢452
7.5¢331
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
7.20¢+12.46%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
21.82¢+240.94%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
54.49¢+751.42%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 6.30%, based on $4.5K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 31, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.